AU’s Egypt Decision

A Dangerous Gamble for Horn of Africa Stability

U’s decision to include Egypt in the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council to include Egypt as a contributing country to the AU Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), given the current tensions in the Horn of Africa, is a risky gamble. The region is already on edge due to the Ethiopia due to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) dispute, Ethiopia’s agreement with Somaliland, and Somalia’s growing forcefulness. Egypt’s involvement could further escalate these tensions and destabilise the entire region.

Egypt’s recent military pact with Somalia and its planned involvement in AUSSOM has already emboldened Somalia to adopt a more aggressive and distractive stance towards Ethiopia. Somalia got angry because of Ethiopia’s recent agreement with Somaliland, which it viewed as a violation of its territorial integrity. Despite being part of the broader Somali state for decades, Somaliland has maintained a distinct identity and independence. Somaliland has been an independent state under British colonial rule since the late 19th century, and it achieved independence in 1960. Shortly after, it joined Italian Somaliland to form the Republic of Somalia. Following the collapse of the central Somali government in the early 1990s, Somaliland declared its independence, establishing a stable government and a thriving economy.

However, in 1991, following the collapse of the central Somali government, Somaliland declared its independence. Despite not being internationally recognised, Somaliland has established a stable government and a thriving economy. It has held multiple democratic elections and has a functioning legal system. However, Somaliland’s quest for international recognition has been an uphill battle. No country has formally recognised it as an independent state, primarily due to concerns about setting precedence for other secessionist movements. Despite its de facto independence, Somaliland continues to face challenges in areas such as diplomatic relations, trade, and international aid.

The recent agreement between Somaliland and Ethiopia offers hope for Somaliland’s recognition. In exchange for a 20 km coastal territory that would allow Ethiopia to establish a military base, Somaliland might finally get what it seeks: recognition. This strategic move could be a significant step towards Somaliland’s goal of gaining international legitimacy.

The agreement provides Ethiopia with a strategic advantage. A military base in Somaliland would enhance Ethiopia’s security and influence in the region. It would also give Ethiopia access to the Red Sea, a vital waterway for trade and commerce. However, the agreement has led to increased tensions with Somalia.

Given the strong diplomatic relations between Ethiopia and Somalia, the presence of Egyptian troops in Somalia could escalate the tension.

The presence of Egyptian troops undermines Ethiopia’s influence in the region and creates new challenges for its peacekeeping efforts. To avoid a scenario where a peacekeeping mission disturbs a peaceful area, the AU should reconsider its decision and make new plans to replace Egyptian forces with troops from other countries. It should do this fast before it is too late. Failure to do this could have negative consequences for the entire region.

The Horn of Africa has a history of conflict and instability. The current situation is particularly precarious, with the potential for a wider regional war. Navigating these challenges and complexities with utmost caution and wisdom is necessary. Ethiopia needs to prioritise diplomacy, invest in internal stability, pursue economic development, and exercise restraint foreign policy to play a constructive role in promoting peace and security in the region and protecting its strategic national interest. EBR

12th Year  September 2024  No. 133