A newly released 22-year economic assessment by the Ethiopian Economics Association (EEA) has revealed that Ethiopia’s total public debt has surged to USD 62.5 billion, triggering renewed concerns over fiscal sustainability and the country’s broader economic trajectory. The report, which comprehensively reviews the nation’s economic performance and governance from 2001 to 2023, delivers a stark warning about the consequences of weak macroeconomic management, civil conflict, and slowing growth.
The 2025 edition of the assessment marks a turning point in methodology and depth, employing standardized and rigorous analytical tools to examine sectoral performance with greater consistency than previous editions. According to the findings, Ethiopia’s economic expansion has slowed considerably since 2016. Both gross domestic product (GDP) and GDP per capita have declined, signaling a reversal from the high-growth period of the 2000s and early 2010s. Inflation has accelerated during the same period, eroding purchasing power and weakening macroeconomic stability. Investment activity has also contracted, while the country’s productive capacity, which expanded until 2019, has since plateaued—limiting opportunities to enhance output and improve livelihoods.
The agricultural sector, historically the backbone of Ethiopia’s economy, has seen a steady decline in its share of GDP, particularly after 2004/05, as the service sector gained prominence. Despite its critical importance, fertilizer usage in the country remains far below international standards, and only 7.8 percent of total loans issued over the past two decades have supported agriculture. The consequences of this underinvestment have become evident in the nation’s food security. From 2020 to 2022, more than 21 percent of Ethiopians experienced food insecurity, with rural communities bearing the greatest burden.
The report also paints a grim picture of the manufacturing sector. In 2023, industrial output accounted for only 4.48 percent of GDP—well below the global average of 12.33 percent. Its contribution to employment was equally modest, at just 6.47 percent. Although import substitution efforts have yielded limited results, progress remains constrained by persistent shortages of raw materials and unreliable utility services. The report notes that challenges in electricity and water supply continue to limit productivity.
Ethiopia’s financial sector, described as shallow and underdeveloped, is struggling to support structural transformation. Credit allocation remains skewed toward non-productive areas, with key sectors like agriculture and industry often bypassed. While financial inclusion has improved overall, significant disparities remain between urban and rural populations, as well as between men and women.
On the fiscal side, government revenues have grown by over 200 percent in nominal terms between 2002 and 2022. However, these gains have been offset by rising inflation, which has reduced the real value of public spending. The country’s debt burden now equates to USD 575.6 per capita. With high levels of debt stress and an underperforming export sector, the report urges the government to improve revenue mobilization and expand foreign currency earnings.
Poverty trends also reveal troubling setbacks. Although the poverty rate dropped from 30.9 percent in 2018/19 to 26.1 percent in 2021/22, it remains higher than the 24 percent recorded in 2015/16. The poorest households have experienced the sharpest decline in living standards, worsened by inflation and recurring conflict.
Governance issues are another central concern. Since 2020, the report observes a deterioration in public trust and governance, contributing to increased unpredictability, internal conflict, and weak economic oversight. The erosion of investor confidence, rising unemployment, and stagnation in growth are all linked to prolonged instability and institutional weakness.
To address these challenges, the EEA emphasizes the need for consistent, prudent, and well-coordinated development policies. It advocates for stronger governance systems, renewed efforts to restore investor confidence, and the integration of peace-building initiatives into national development planning. In particular, the report recommends reallocating public spending towards long-term capital investment, broadening the tax base in a non-inflationary manner, and designing more inclusive financial policies.
Ethiopian Business Review
