Airbus Projects Sixfold Rise in Ethiopia’s Air Passenger Traffic by 2045

Betegbar Yaregal

#EBR_News Oct 13, 2026

Ethiopia’s origin-and-destination air passenger traffic is forecast to grow almost sixfold between 2025 and 2045, one of the strongest rates in Africa, according to Airbus’s latest Global Market Forecast (GMF 2026). 

The European manufacturer presented the outlook at a press conference at the Skylight Hotel in Addis Ababa on 13 October.

Across the continent, Africa will need 1,640 new passenger aircraft over the next 20 years, made up of 1,310 single-aisle and 330 widebody jets, Airbus said in a press release. Passenger traffic to, from and within Africa is expected to almost triple, growing at 4.9% a year.

That would make Africa the world’s second-fastest growing aviation market after Asia, the company said.

Ethiopia is expected to outpace the continent. Antonio Da Costa, Airbus’s Vice President for Market Analysis and Forecast, told the audience that Ethiopian traffic is projected to expand by 9.3% a year, almost twice the African average. 

The strongest growth is expected in domestic and intra-African travel, he said. According to the press release, yearly trips per person in Ethiopia are forecast to rise by 150% by 2045, compared with 100% in Nigeria and South Africa.

Airbus links the outlook to demographic and economic trends. The press release says Africa’s population will rise by 720 million to more than two billion by 2045, its middle class will grow by 180 million, and real GDP will expand by 4.0% a year. 

The forecast comes at a difficult time for airlines. Alberto Blanco, Head of Marketing for Commercial Aircraft for Africa and the Middle East, said jet fuel prices more than doubled after the conflict in the Middle East and remain high. Da Costa said African traffic is still growing at 7.1% this year, against 2% to 3% in other regions.

Airbus expects the African fleet to expand sharply. Da Costa said single-aisle aircraft operated by African carriers would rise from about 490 at the end of last year to more than 1,600, and widebodies from 160 to about 310. Around 90% of the single-aisle demand is for growth rather than replacement. 

Latest-generation aircraft are forecast to make up 65% of the region’s fleet by 2035, up from 30% in 2025, which Airbus says will improve efficiency and cut fuel burn and emissions.

In an interview with EBR, Da Costa said the new Bishoftu International Airport confirms Airbus’s outlook, because growth of this scale makes a bigger airport sensible.

He added that Airbus sees potential in Ethiopian Airlines’ maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) business, and that it would be “delighted” to expand its manufacturing footprint in Ethiopia, citing the country’s skilled workforce.

He gave no commitment or timeline. Airbus already has manufacturing centers in Tunisia and Morocco.

Ethiopian Airlines, Africa’s largest A350 customer, still has about 17 A350-900s to receive, according to the airline’s fleet summary, including six ordered at the Dubai Airshow in November 2025, as Airbus announced at the time. 

Asked by EBR about the delivery schedule, Da Costa declined to give dates, saying it is for the carrier to disclose them, though he said Airbus is investing to raise production to 12 aircraft a month within two years. Blanco cautioned that realizing the forecast will require continued investment in infrastructure and closer cooperation between African countries.