Ethiopia is identified as one of the four African countries in PC16 – Post China 16: countries best suited to succeed China as the world’s low-cost, export-oriented economic hub, according to a projection by stratford, a renowned geopolitical intelligence firm. The report indicates, the international system opens the door to low-wage countries with appropriate infrastructure and sufficient order to do business. Low-wage countries seize the opportunity and climb upon the escalator of the international system and development.
The author of the research and the founder of the firm, George Friedman noted “China is at the fringes of its low-wage, high-growth era and other countries will replace it.”
Though China will continue to maintain and perhaps prosper, the era of Chinese development – pyramiding on low wages to conquer global markets- is ending simply because there are now other nations with even lower wages and other advantages.
The research also noted “since there is no single country that can replace China because of its staggering size, its successors will not be one country but several countries, most at roughly the same stage of development.”
The new development activity is focused on Africa, Asia and to a lesser extent, Latin America and is particularly observed in the Indian Ocean Basin. The most interesting pattern is in the eastern edge of Sub-Saharan Africa; Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania where as Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Myanmar, and Bangladesh are also directly related to the Indian Ocean.
Even though the Indochina countries Cambodia, Laos, the Philippines, and Vietnam are not on the Indian Ocean, they are nearby. Dominican Republic, Mexico, Nicaragua, and Peru are the Latin American countries included in the PC16. Taken together, these countries have a total population of just over 1 billion people.