Middle East Conflict Threatens Ethiopia’s Fertilizer Supply, Risks Food Security Ahead of Planting SeasonMiddle East Conflict Threatens Ethiopia’s Fertilizer Supply, Risks Food Security Ahead of Planting Season

EBR_News Mar 10, 2026

By Betegbar Yaregal

The escalating conflict in the Middle East is placing severe pressure on global fertilizer markets, threatening to disrupt Ethiopia’s agricultural sector just as the critical belg planting season approaches, according to a new analysis examining the implications for Sub-Saharan Africa.

Ethiopia imports over 90 percent of its nitrogen fertilizer requirements, primarily from Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iran, with shipments routed through the Red Sea corridor already strained by months of disruptions. The conflict has triggered a surge in global urea prices, with U.S. futures jumping approximately $130 per tonne in the first two days following the strikes, the report notes.

Agriculture accounts for roughly 35 percent of Ethiopia’s GDP and employs over 70 percent of the population. The country imported $1.2 billion worth of fertilizer in 2023, making it one of Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest fertilizer importers. Principal staple crops including teff, wheat, maize, sorghum, and barley are deeply dependent on timely fertilizer availability.

Three intersecting domestic stresses compound the external shock. Ongoing conflict in Amhara, Tigray, and Oromia regions has severed logistics corridors critical for fertilizer distribution, with Amhara alone accounting for roughly half of national millet and cereal production. The ICRC distributed only 1,550 metric tonnes of fertilizer across all three regions in mid-2025, highlighting the structural gap.

An IMF-linked subsidy reform program is compressing farmer purchasing power at precisely the wrong moment. The government spent 16 billion birr on fertilizer subsidies in 2024 and is committed to reducing them to 0.3 percent of GDP by FY 2026. Smallholders have almost no ability to absorb price increases without reducing application rates.

Ethiopia’s landlocked position adds another layer of vulnerability. Its primary import corridor runs through the Port of Djibouti, exposed to the same Red Sea disruptions affecting the broader region. While a small but growing share of fertilizer is beginning to flow through Kenya’s Lamu Port following a maiden 60,000 metric ton discharge from Morocco in May 2025, this diversification is nascent and unlikely to cover a meaningful supply gap during this planting season.

FEWS NET’s November 2025 analysis already placed large portions of East Hararghe at Emergency food insecurity levels, with Crisis conditions widespread across the south and southeast. The report warns that any additional squeeze on fertilizer availability or affordability in early 2026 will land on communities with little remaining resilience.

Long-term supply investments offer cautious optimism. Ethiopia has partnered with a private investor on a $2.5 billion domestic urea plant intended to tap the country’s natural gas reserves, with projected 3 million metric tone annual capacity once online. Nigeria’s Dangote Fertilizer complex is reorienting some volume toward African markets, and Morocco’s OCP Group continues scaling phosphate exports into East Africa.

However, the analysis concludes that for the 2026 planting season, these investments offer little immediate relief. The priority should be protecting access for the most vulnerable farming households through emergency buffer stocks, targeted subsidy preservation for smallholders, and active engagement with alternative suppliers in Morocco, Russia, and Indonesia ahead of the belg planting window.