Ethiopian Airlines’ Vision 2035 Ambitions Face Headwinds

Ethiopian Airlines, Africa’s aviation juggernaut, is hitting turbulence in its ascent toward Vision 2035, its bold strategy to double its fleet, quintuple passenger volumes, and position itself as a global aviation force. While demand for air travel and cargo remains robust, the airline is increasingly constrained by a confluence of industry-wide headwinds: aircraft delivery delays, certification holdups, and deepening engine shortages.

The carrier’s Vision 2035 blueprint is one of the most ambitious on the continent: expand to 271 aircraft, grow its route network to over 200 international destinations, increase annual passenger numbers to 65 million, and scale cargo throughput to 3 million tons. However, the path seems steeper than expected.

In a recent interview with Reuters, Ethiopian Airlines Group CEO Mesfin Tasew offered a candid assessment of current bottlenecks. “We have five aircraft on the ground waiting for engines,” he revealed, citing prolonged engine turnaround times, stretching well beyond the standard three-month maintenance cycle as a growing operational risk. The airline’s Boeing 787 Dreamliner and turboprop fleets are both feeling the pinch, with engine suppliers unable to meet resupply timelines due to global MRO backlogs and component shortages.

Adding to the pressure is the uncertainty surrounding aircraft certification, particularly for the Boeing 737 MAX 7, one of the types Ethiopian is evaluating as it eyes the acquisition of at least 20 regional jets. According to a latest report by ch-aviation, Ethiopian has shortlisted the MAX 7, Airbus A220, and Embraer E2 families, but FAA certification delays are complicating procurement timelines.

Vision 2035 also includes expansive investment in infrastructure—both in physical assets like the planned mega-airport in Bishoftu, and in the airline’s own MRO and cargo capabilities. Yet even as the carrier ramps up these internal systems, it remains partially beholden to global supply chains and regulatory timelines beyond its control.

To mitigate future shocks, the airline is fast-tracking the expansion of its in-house MRO division and actively exploring ways to insulate its operations from global parts shortages. But with multiple aircraft grounded and new deliveries uncertain, Ethiopian’s Vision 2035 may require recalibration—not in ambition, but in timeline.

Despite these pressures, Ethiopian Airlines continues to deliver resilient performance. The carrier posted an 8% increase in annual revenue, reaching USD 5.6 billion, and transported a record 14.5 million passengers in the most recent fiscal year. The fleet grew by 10 aircraft, including the delivery of Africa’s largest Airbus A350-1000, reinforcing the airline’s position as a regional and global aviation leader.