@EthiopianChamber – Ethiopian Business Review

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Ethiopia is projected to lose approximately USD 5 million in customs revenue during the first year of implementing the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement, according to the Ethiopian Policy Studies Institute.

The projection was disclosed as part of the finalization of Ethiopia’s National AfCFTA Implementation Strategy, which outlines the country’s roadmap for integrating into the continent-wide free trade pact. The strategy was officially launched during a public consultation forum held in Addis Ababa on June 20, 2025.

The high-level event brought together senior government officials, private sector leaders, and development partners. Among the key attendees were Dr. Kassahun Goffe, Minister of Trade and Regional Integration; Yasmin Wohabrebi, State Minister for Trade and Regional Integration; and Dr. Abebe Ambachew, Senior Researcher at the Policy Studies Institute.

According to Dr. Abebe Ambachew, Senior Researcher at the Policy Studies Institute, the estimated revenue loss over a 13-year period could reach USD 83.3 million, with USD 5 million expected in the first year alone. He added that customs duties currently account for about 25.6% of Ethiopia’s total government revenue from imports.

“Given that most of Ethiopia’s trade occurs with non-African countries, the impact of AfCFTA-related tariff losses may not be as severe in the short term,” said Dr. Abebe. “However, the country must take steps to diversify revenue sources and strengthen its export base.”

Speaking at the launch of the ECOTRADE Project, Dr. Kassahun also emphasized Ethiopia’s limited experience in duty-free trade frameworks.

“We have primarily operated within a tax-based trade system and lack practical exposure to free trade. This transition will have direct implications for our customs operations and logistics systems,” he stated.

He further highlighted structural barriers beyond tariff-related issues, pointing to regional connectivity constraints. “Although Ethiopia’s aviation sector ranks first in Africa, it still cannot be effectively utilized for large-scale continental trade,” he added.

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) was signed on March 21, 2018, in Kigali, Rwanda, and officially entered into force on May 30, 2019, after reaching the required number of ratifications. Ethiopia ratified the agreement in 2019 but has yet to fully liberalize its tariffs or participate in the AfCFTA’s Guided Trade Initiative.

Current trade figures show that only 14% of Ethiopia’s exports are destined for African markets, while just 9.6% of imports originate from the continent. This indicates a limited level of trade integration with African partners and suggests that Ethiopia’s gains from AfCFTA may take time to materialize.

To mitigate the projected revenue gap, experts at the forum emphasized the need to expand alternative tax mechanisms and boost export performance, particularly in value-added sectors. Dr. Abebe noted that Ethiopia’s export and import volumes have both shown moderate growth over the past decade, presenting a potential foundation for greater regional trade integration.

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Ethiopia recorded a significant rebound in foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2024, attracting approximately US USD3.98 billion, a 21.9% increase compared to the previous year, according to the latest United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) World Investment Report 2025.

This growth positions Ethiopia as the leading FDI recipient in East Africa, a region that collectively attracted around USD8.5 billion in 2024, marking modest growth despite a challenging global environment characterized by an 11% decline in worldwide FDI flows.

Neighboring countries contributed to this regional investment landscape with Kenya drawing an estimated USD2.5 billion in FDI, Tanzania about USD1.1 billion, Uganda approximately USD0.7 billion, and Rwanda close to USD0.2 billion. These inflows reflect steady investor interest across sectors such as fintech, manufacturing, infrastructure, renewable energy, agribusiness, and technology.

Ethiopia’s surge is driven by reforms and investments targeting telecommunications, renewable energy, agribusiness, and logistics, marking a recovery after subdued inflows following its 2016/17 peak of USD4.12 billion.

The East African region showed resilience, with greenfield projects increasing by 32% and international project finance deals rising 38%, signaling confidence in new investments despite global FDI contractions.

Regional integration initiatives such as the East African Community (EAC) and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) remain vital in enhancing investment flows and fostering economic diversification across the region.

In a further boost to Ethiopia’s regional economic engagement, the Ministry of Trade and Regional Integration (MoTRI) recently convened a high-level validation workshop on the country’s National AfCFTA Implementation Strategy. The event brought together policymakers, private sector representatives, development partners, and trade experts to review the final draft of the strategy designed to guide Ethiopia’s active participation in the landmark continental trade agreement.

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Heineken Ethiopia, in partnership with Mahibere Hiwot for Social Development (MSD), officially handed over a new ETB 33 million animal fattening and food processing project today. The initiative is designed to uplift impoverished households in Kilinto and Koye Fetche through sustainable, livestock-based, and small-business income generation schemes.

Targeting 75 households—30 in Kilinto and 45 in Koye Fetche—the project aims to bolster grassroots livelihoods by integrating communities into profitable agricultural value chains. Beneficiaries will engage in animal fattening, dairy production, poultry farming, and small-scale agribusinesses, sectors that remain essential for local food security and economic resilience.

Speaking at the launch ceremony, Heineken Ethiopia’s Managing Director, Bart De Keninck emphasized the transformative impact of livestock farming on rural and peri-urban communities. They pledged continued support through technical training, market linkages, and sustainable management practices to ensure the project’s long-term success.

The multi-pronged initiative provides selected households with livestock, feed, veterinary services, training in food processing, and business development skills. It places a strong emphasis on empowering women, female-headed households, and people with disabilities, identified through a collaborative selection process involving Heineken, MSD, community members, and local government representatives.

Beyond economic upliftment, the project seeks to strengthen social cohesion and nurture local entrepreneurship, with Heineken pledging continued support through technical capacity building, market linkages, and the promotion of sustainable farming practices.

The Ethiopian Customs Commission has announced sweeping changes to the regulation of goods imported without foreign currency payments (Franco-Valuta), as part of a broader financial sector overhaul.

The National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) confirmed the repeal of the decades-old Establishment Proclamation No. 691/2000, replacing it with the more robust NBE Proclamation No. 1359/2017. The move grants the central bank stronger oversight powers while scrapping the previous Council of Ministers Regulation No. 88/1995, which governed Franco-Valuta imports.

In a transitional measure, the Customs Commission will continue processing foreign exchange license requests under existing procedures—but with stricter scrutiny. Non-commercial Franco-Valuta requests from government agencies, NGOs, and international organizations must now be vetted by Customs Operations Managers and approved only by senior Customs Office Managers.

The NBE has ordered meticulous record-keeping, requiring monthly reports on Franco-Valuta transactions to prevent misuse. The changes signal Ethiopia’s push to modernize trade finance controls while managing forex shortages—a critical issue for import-dependent industries.

Businesses and institutions must adapt quickly, as further directives are expected. The reforms aim to curb abuse of forex exemptions, ensuring hard currency is prioritized for essential imports.

Ethiopia’s trade sector has shown remarkable growth, with foreign trade volumes reaching USD 4.5 billion in just the first eight months of the current fiscal year. This represents a significant leap from the USD 2.6 billion recorded for the entire year in 2010, highlighting the country’s expanding economic footprint.

Trade and Regional Integration Minister Kassahun Gofe (PhD) shared these figures during a stakeholder forum discussing Ethiopia’s draft trade policy. The government has set an ambitious target to surpass USD 6 billion in total trade by the end of the fiscal year, building on current momentum.

A key development in Ethiopia’s trade landscape is the creation of its first comprehensive trade policy framework. For years, the country operated without a formal trade policy, but after extensive efforts, officials have now prepared a draft document to guide future commerce.

The ministry has also been busy implementing structural reforms, including issuing 2.5 million new business licenses to stimulate entrepreneurship. To boost consumer access and commercial activity, authorities have established over 1,300 weekend shopping malls across the country.

In a major push for quality control, Ethiopia has invested ETB 8.2 billion to build a state-of-the-art Quality Assurance Center. This facility will monitor more than 4.5 million tons of imported and exported goods annually, ensuring standards compliance.

Minister Kassahun connected these developments to Ethiopia’s broader macroeconomic reforms and its bid to join the World Trade Organization. He expressed confidence that the new trade policy demonstrates the country’s readiness for WTO membership while aiming to create a more competitive and sustainable trade environment.

The draft trade policy specifically focuses on facilitating regional economic integration, reflecting Ethiopia’s growing role as a commercial hub in East Africa. These collective efforts represent a comprehensive approach to modernizing Ethiopia’s trade ecosystem and positioning the country for greater global economic engagement.

The National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) successfully conducted its first bi-weekly foreign exchange auction today, marking a key milestone in its ongoing efforts to stabilize the forex market.

According to NBE’s official announcement, the weighted average exchange rate for successful bids settled at Birr 131.7095 per US Dollar, with 12 banks securing foreign exchange allocations.

This auction is part of the central bank’s broader strategy to enhance forex liquidity for the private sector following Ethiopia’s recent macroeconomic reforms. It follows NBE’s decision to launch regular bi-weekly auctions, a move driven by improved forex reserves and increased capital inflows.

The next auction is scheduled to take place in two weeks, with details on the exact date and time to be disclosed one day prior.

By maintaining a structured approach to foreign exchange distribution, the NBE aims to reinforce market confidence while supporting broader economic stability. Market participants will closely monitor upcoming auctions to assess trends in forex availability and pricing.

In a groundbreaking move set to transform Ethiopia’s digital financial ecosystem, Ethio Telecom and MasterCard Africa are exploring a strategic collaboration to introduce cutting-edge digital financial services.

A high-level delegation, led by Ethio Telecom CEO Frehiwot Tamiru and MasterCard Africa President Mark Elliott, engaged in discussions to leverage their respective platforms—Telebirr and MasterCard—to expand financial access, accelerate digital payments, and drive sustainable economic growth.

CEO Frehiwot Tamiru emphasized Ethio Telecom’s strong market position, highlighting its vast customer base and robust infrastructure as key enablers in unlocking new digital opportunities. “Our partnership with MasterCard is driven by a shared vision to revolutionize Ethiopia’s financial sector and empower millions through innovative digital solutions,” she stated.

Echoing this sentiment, Mark Elliott, Division President, Mastercard Africa underscored MasterCard’s commitment to the Ethiopian market, citing Ethio Telecom’s rapid growth and infrastructure capabilities as a solid foundation for success. “This collaboration aligns with our mission to drive financial inclusion and create a more connected and competitive digital economy,” he said.

The Ministry of Transport and Logistics has announced that the Ethio-Djibouti Railway has steadily increased its transportation capacity, with plans to handle 50% of Ethiopia’s export cargo in the near future. The railway has consistently boosted its cargo capacity by 14.2% annually, solidifying its critical role in Ethiopia’s trade infrastructure.

Currently, the railway plays a pivotal part in the export of Ethiopian coffee, transporting 98% of the country’s coffee exports. It also handles a diverse range of goods, from fertilizers and livestock to heavy machinery, buses, and new trucks, showcasing its capacity to manage both multimodal and unimodal container loads.

In addition, the railway is instrumental in transporting perishable goods in containerized form, maintaining quality, and ensuring that products reach foreign markets in optimal condition—vital for safeguarding Ethiopia’s expected income from foreign trade.

Looking ahead, the Ethio-Djibouti Railway Corporation has set ambitious targets. It aims to cover 50% of Ethiopia’s freight transport needs, increase train frequency to 14 trains per day, and enhance the speed of freight trains to 58 km/h. Furthermore, the corporation is moving toward a fully digitalized rail service, focusing on improving operational efficiency and customer satisfaction.

Recent strides include obtaining multimodal operating and freight forwarding licenses, expanding its service offerings, and positioning itself as a key player in Ethiopia’s freight and logistics sector. The railway’s growth reflects not only its expanding capabilities but also Ethiopia’s ongoing efforts to improve trade efficiency and strengthen its position in the global market.

Ethiopia Anticipates USD5 Million Customs Revenue Loss in AfCFTA’s First Year

Ethiopia’s FDI Surges Nearly 22% to USD4 Billion in 2024, Leading East Africa’s Investment Recovery

Heineken Ethiopia Launches ETB 33 Million Livelihood Project to Empower Vulnerable Families in Kilinto and Koye Fetche

Ethiopia Scraps Old Forex Rules for Imports, Tightens Franco-Valuta Controls

Ethiopia’s Foreign Trade Hits USD 4.5 Billion in 8 Months

Ethiopia’s Central Bank Concludes First Bi-Weekly FX Auction at ETB 131.71

Telebirr and MasterCard Platforms to Power Ethiopia’s Digital Finance Expansion

Ethio-Djibouti Railway Aims to Dominate 50% of Ethiopia’s Export Cargo