Russia Tightens Grip on African Wheat Market as Ukraine Opens First Agrohub in Ghana

EBR_News Apr 20, 2026

Betegbar Yaregal

Russia has more than doubled its wheat exports to Sudan and solidified its position as Africa’s dominant grain supplier, capturing a record 40 percent of the continent’s wheat import market, according to Russia’s agriculture export agency Agroexport. The development coincides with Ukraine’s strategic pivot to Africa, opening its first agricultural hub in Ghana and intensifying competition for a continent where Ethiopia remains heavily dependent on Black Sea imports.

Russian wheat shipments to Sudan surged to 1.7 million tons since the start of the 2025/26 season, up from 0.7 million tons a year earlier, driven by the restart of several Sudanese mills and a broader push into African markets. Agroexport reported that Egypt alone accounted for a record 21 percent of Russia’s wheat exports in the 2024/25 season, exceeding 9.4 million tons.

At an international conference on Africa’s food sovereignty held in Ethiopia last November, Russian officials announced that Moscow’s share of grain supplies to the African market had reached an unprecedented 40 percent. Exports to Nigeria increased fivefold year-on-year, while shipments to Morocco doubled, to Mozambique surged nearly twelvefold, and Russia resumed grain exports to Togo for the first time since 2022.

Ukraine, the world’s fifth-largest wheat exporter, opened its first food processing and distribution center in Ghana on April 14 as part of its “Food from Ukraine” initiative. Prime Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko said the hub, which will process Ukrainian wheat into local products such as pasta and rice, is designed to combine humanitarian support with long-term commercial partnerships.

“This is a new format of our presence in the world, where humanitarian support is combined with the development of partnerships and local economies,” Svyrydenko stated. Since 2022, Ukraine has delivered more than 324,000 tons of agricultural products,  including wheat, flour, and sunflower oil to 19 countries, including Ethiopia, Somalia, and Nigeria.

The African market purchased $2.8 billion worth of agricultural goods from Ukraine last year. However, Ukrainian officials noted that only 12 percent of the country’s agricultural exports currently go to Africa, leaving substantial room for growth.

The intensifying Russia-Ukraine competition over African grain markets has direct implications. Russia remains Ethiopia’s largest wheat supplier, accounting for 68 percent of imports, followed by Ukraine and Romania. Together, the three Black Sea nations supplied 93 percent of Ethiopia’s wheat imports, according to a USDA report.

Ethiopia’s wheat production is forecast to reach a record 7.0 million metric tons in the 2026/27 marketing year, an eight percent increase driven by expanded irrigation, improved seed adoption, and mechanization. However, domestic consumption is projected at 8.2 million metric tons, leaving a deficit of 1.4 million metric tons that must be covered by commercial imports.

Despite record harvests, Ethiopian consumers face rising wheat prices. Between February 2025 and February 2026, wheat prices surged 28 percent, from 6,450 birr to 8,250 birr per 100 kilograms, driven by currency depreciation, rising fuel costs, and expensive agricultural inputs. The birr has lost about 107 percent of its value against the US dollar since the introduction of a market-based exchange rate in July 2024, falling from 75 birr to 155 birr per dollar by February 2026.

Fertilizer prices have risen by 60 percent, while fuel costs are up 56 percent, putting heavy pressure on smallholder farmers. Imported wheat remains about $45 cheaper per ton than locally produced grain, but foreign currency shortages continue to constrain import capacity.

As Russia consolidates its dominance in African grain markets and Ukraine expands its footprint, Ethiopia finds itself at the center of this geopolitical and economic rivalry. The country’s continued reliance on Black Sea imports for 93 percent of its wheat supply underscores both its vulnerability to global market fluctuations and the strategic importance of diversifying supply sources.

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