The International Monetary Fund has lowered sub-Saharan Africa’s economic growth projection for 2026 to 4.2%, down from its October forecast, citing mounting global policy uncertainty and tightening external conditions. Abebe Aemro Selassie, Director of the IMF’s African Department announced following the release of the IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, April 2025.

“This fragile recovery now faces a new test,” said Abebe. “Just when policy efforts began to bear fruit, the region’s growth trajectory was overtaken by a sudden realignment of global priorities.”

According to him, growth is expected to ease to 3.8% in 2025 before edging up to 4.2% in 2026—both figures revised downward due to external shocks including weakening demand from advanced economies, softer commodity prices, and tighter international financial markets.

Abebe warned that if global financial conditions tighten further or trade tensions worsen, sub-Saharan African economies could see reduced investment, higher borrowing costs, and deeper fiscal strain.

He also flags a likely decline in Official Development Assistance to the region, further straining vulnerable populations already facing elevated inflation and limited fiscal buffers. “High debt levels continue to constrain many countries’ ability to fund essential services and development priorities,” Abebe added.

To navigate these headwinds, he said that the IMF is urging countries to focus on resilience-building policies—strengthening domestic revenue mobilization, improving public spending efficiency, and reinforcing fiscal frameworks to manage debt sustainably. The Fund also recommends governance reforms, regional trade integration, and private sector development as central to creating jobs and sustaining long-term growth.

“A prosperous and stable sub-Saharan Africa is not only critical for the continent—it is a strategic pillar for global prosperity in the decades ahead,” Abebe said, highlighting Africa’s demographic advantage as a future driver of global labor supply and consumption demand.

Since 2020, the IMF has disbursed more than USD65 billion to countries in the region, including over USD8 billion in 2024. Alongside financial support, the Fund continues to provide technical assistance and policy guidance as countries grapple with internal vulnerabilities and global disruptions.