Ethiopia’s claims of wheat self-sufficiency are facing growing scrutiny as new data raises doubts about the government’s figures. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has hailed the country’s agricultural reforms, claiming Ethiopia has gone from importing wheat to becoming a major exporter, with production supposedly reaching 23 million tonnes in 2023-24, up from 15.1 million tonnes in 2022-23.

However, The Economist analysis reveals significant discrepancies in the government’s reported figures. Independent estimates from the African Development Bank (AfDB) and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) suggest Ethiopia’s actual wheat production is far lower—7.5 million tonnes in 2023-24, and 5.8 million tonnes in 2022-23, respectively.

These conflicting numbers raise questions about the accuracy of Ethiopia’s self-sufficiency claims. Despite assertions that the country no longer imports wheat, USDA data shows private traders brought in 1.4 million tonnes in 2023, with a 57% increase in imports during the first five months of 2024.

The Ethiopian government’s agricultural strategy, which includes the promotion of “cluster farms” and increased irrigation, has drawn praise from international bodies. However, critics argue that focusing heavily on wheat monocropping could harm soil quality in the long run.

The controversy over wheat production data also points to potential issues within the country’s statistical agencies. The Ethiopian Statistical Service (ESS) recently removed figures from the central bank’s website that contradicted official estimates, according to The Economist.

While international organizations like the FAO and AfDB have recognized Ethiopia’s agricultural progress, neither has fully endorsed the government’s wheat production numbers. Meanwhile, food aid remains a pressing issue, with 16 million Ethiopians still relying on assistance in 2024, according to the World Food Programme.