Ethiopia’s Perplexing Fiscal Dilemma

 The Ethiopian government has approved a budget of ETB801 billion (USD15 billion) for the 2023-24 fiscal year, which began on July 8. The budget, equivalent to 7.1Pct of anticipated GDP for the year, prioritizes pro-poor sectors such as infrastructure development, education and health but reduces capital expenditure and freezes public sector new recruitment. The Government is seeking USD12 billion in funding based on its 2023-2027 macroeconomic and fiscal frameworks. Critics have raised concerns about debt servicing’s impact on priority spending and the potential hindrance to infrastructure development and job creation from reduced capital expenditure EBR’s Bamlak Fekadu highlights the forecast for the new fiscal year, the budget deficit, inflation, import growth, the allocation of funds for different sectors and regions, and also look into the impact of Direct Advances on the economy.

Ethiopia, a country rich in natural resources, has one of the most varied agro-ecological settings. The country’s diversity makes it suitable for growing hundreds of crops, with 74.3 million hectares of arable land spread over 18 major agroecological zones at altitudes ranging from 148 metres below sea level to 4,620 metres above sea level. The country is also home to a large number of livestock resources. Ethiopia’s agricultural sector plays a crucial role in the country’s economy, employing over 70Pct of the population and contributing to more than a third of the GDP. Despite promising results, it has yet to realise its full agricultural potential due to subsistence-oriented farming practices, limited technology adoption, sub-optimal agronomic practices, and a heavy reliance on rain-fed farming. Conflict and severe drought records have resulted in poor crop output, limited market access, income loss, and substantial postharvest losses. As if that were not bad enough, farmers now deal with acute fertiliser shortages, writes EBR’s Bamlak Fekadu. 

Execution, Literacy Challenging Transformation

Ethiopia’s economy has been affected mainly by peace and security challenges. Shortage of forex, dwindling industrial outputs, and inflation, among other challenges, have stood on the economy’s throat, leaving it gasping for air. Amidst these dark moments in the economy, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s (PhD) administration has shown a solid commitment to one thing: digital transformation. Last month, the Ministry of Transport and Logistics implemented a digital payment system at fuel retail, banning cash payments throughout Addis Ababa. Since the announcement, operational gas stations have been chaotic. Despite the multi-facet advantages of digital payment, enough preparations to work on the digital literacy of the public are necessary for a seamless transition into the modern way of payment. Moreover, the details of the execution of the digital transformation need to be well thought out, writes EBR’s Bamlak Fekadu.

Technology is transforming the digital economy, and digital financial services (DFS) are vital facilitators. DFS is expanding access to and use of financial services, emphasizing affordability and improving access to credit through a new digital lending system. As a result, new environments have been established to meet more demanding clients, with neo-banking being the new paradigm threatening brick-and-mortar banking.

Financial service digital technology innovators are driving growth, and the market is changing rapidly. DFSs are a critical enabler of a digital economy in which access to finance is essential. FinTechs, in alliance with commercial banks and microfinance institutions, are increasing access to and usage of financial services while emphasizing affordability. They are also setting new trends by fostering access to credit through a new digital lending scheme.

Ethiopia has 1.3 million registered vehicles, of which 84 Pct are used in the transport business. The ride-hailing industry provides an estimated 90,000 rides daily, using mobile technologies. Petroleum products are imported for USD 3 billion, increasing the demand for gasoline by 14 Pct on average per year. In this article, EBR’s Bamlak Fekadu assesses the landscape of the growing digitalization of the Ethiopian economy with an emphasis on digital payment systems.